Evaluation of the Arima-Kalman model in predicting rainfall in Medan City in 2023 using observation data from 2013 – 2022 Alva Josia Lumbantoruan ; Yahya Darmawan ; Munawar Munawar ; Nardi Nardi ; Fendy Arifianto ; Ervan Ferdiansyah Komunikasi Fisika Indonesia 8 Sep 2026 10.31258/jkfi.22.1.15-22